2021 winter forecast promising results
After years of ongoing drought, the latest spring/winter harvest show yields five times the amount harvested in 2019 are being celebrated. Even better are the predictions of above average yields for 2021.
Recent reports from Australian Department of Agriculture, Water and the Environment (ABARES) and Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) suggest average or above results from the 2020 winter/spring cropping season mean, your finishing the season on a high.
Results vary for each state and territory, though Australia generally is reporting an average to above average yield expectations from 2021 winter planting and generous rainfall figures for the next few months.
- Winter rainfall and a strong start to sowing in New South Wales is expected to result in well above average results.
- Victoria, South Australia, Western Australia and southern Queensland prospects look average to above average despite warmer than average winter temperatures and below average June and July rainfall.
- ABARES suggests soil moisture levels and timely rainfall were sufficient to sustain established crops through this period, with August rain boosting prospects.
- August rainfall wasn’t enough to benefit central and northern Queensland. The regions are predicted to achieve average 2021 winter yields.
Our own data is consistent with the strong year Australian farmers have experienced. Chaser bin orders alone were 10 times greater in 2020 than in 2019, and there was a 135% increase in machinery sales overall.
The BOM’s September to November figures indicated above average spring rainfall in most cropping regions with the exception of lower than average falls in most Western Australian regions.
ABARES 20-21 winter/summer crop forecasts include:
- National increase by 64% in 2020–21 to 47.9 million tonnes, 20% above the 10-year average to 2019–20 of 40 million tonnes.
- Around 60% of the forecast increase in production is from increased production in New South Wales. Area planted to winter crops in 2020–21 is estimated to have increased by 23% from the drought affected season in 2019–20.
- Wheat: 91% increase to 28.9 million tonnes, 22% above the 10-year average to 2019–20 of 23.7 million tonnes.
- Barley: 25% increase to 11.2 million tonnes, 23% above the 10-year average to 2019–20 of 9.1 million tonnes.
- Canola: 47% increase to 3.4 million tonnes, 4% above the 10-year average to 2019–20 of 3.3 million tonnes.
- Amongst other crops, chickpeas production is forecast to increase by 152% to 708,000 tonnes and oats production is forecast to increase by 93% to 1.7 million tonnes.
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